Application of Benford's law in agricultural production statistics

The importance of food supply throughout the world has once again shown its significance in the COVID-19 pandemic period. A continuous food supply is possible with correct agricultural programming. An effective agricultural product programming can only be possible by obtaining precise agricultural data. However, it is very difficult to gather accurate agricultural production statistics from all over the world and confirm their accuracy. In this study, the compatibility of the production statistics of six important agricultural products (wheat, rice, potato, onion, banana, apple) which had been collected from local sources, and had published as opensource by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, with Benford's law was examined for the first time. Data for the last two decades are used to ignore the impact of annual fluctuations. The compatibility of theoretically expected and observed data was tested by Chi-square (X2) and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) tests. Although inconsistencies were found in some data by examining the numbers in the first, second, and first two digits, in general, the MAD test results gave a mostly concordant result.

Impact of the economic crisis on the apple production price in the republic of North Macedonia

Apple production has the greatest significance among all types of fruit crops in Macedonia, sharing 56% of the total fruit production. Due to the economic crisis caused by Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine, the prices of agricultural inputs have increased greatly. To that end, the main goal of this paper is to evaluate the impact of the global economic crisis on the apple production price. The production costs calculation is based on calculation of variable and fixed costs of apple production for 2020 and 2021 as reference years and 2022 as the year when the production price change is considered. Data for the normative calculation and production price for 2020 and 2021 are obtained based on the expert knowledge and confirmed with the semi-structured interview with 3 farmers and 2 apple producing companies. Based on this normative calculation and market prices for inputs in 2020, 2021 and 2022 collected from the 10 input suppliers, AMIS and SSO, the apple production price is calculated. The results show that the economic crisis has a large negative economic impact on apple production, as the estimated full production price of apples in 2022 ha increased by 37% compared with that of 2020 & 2021.

The Trilogy of the Chinese Apple Futures Market: Price Discovery, Risk-Hedging and Cointegration

The agricultural futures market plays an extremely important role in price discovery, hedging risks, integrating agricultural markets and promoting agricultural economic growth. China is the largest apple producer and consumer in the world. In 2017, Chinese apple futures were listed on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (CZCE) as the first fruit futures contract globally. This paper aims to study the efficiency of the apple futures market by using the Wild Bootstrapping Variance Ratio model to estimate the price discovery function, the ARIMA-GARCH model to estimate the risk-hedging function, and the ARDL-ECM model to estimate the cointegration relationship of the futures and spot market. Experimental results firstly demonstrate that the apple futures market conforms to the weak-form efficiency, which indicates that it is efficient in price discovery. Secondly, the apple futures market is not of semi-strong efficiency because it generated abnormal profit margins amid China–US trade friction, climate disaster, and COVID-19;in terms of the degree of impact, the COVID-19 pandemic had the greatest impact, followed by the rainstorm disaster and trade friction. Thirdly, the results of this study indicate that the cointegration relationships exist between the futures market and the spot markets of the main producing areas. This paper is not only conducive to sustainable development of the global fresh or fruit futures market, but also has potential and practical importance for China in developing the agricultural futures market, strengthening market risk management and promoting market circulation.

Holistic thinking and risk-taking perceptions reduce risk-taking intentions: ethical, financial, and health/safety risks across genders and cultures

Holistic thinking involves four subconstructs: causality, contradiction, attention to the whole, and change. This holistic perspective varies across Eastern-Western cultures and genders. We theorize that holistic thinking reduces three domain-specific risk-taking behavioral intentions (ethical, financial, and health/safety) directly and indirectly through enhanced risk-taking attitudes. Our formative theoretical model treats the four subconstructs of holistic thinking as yoked antecedents and frames it in a proximal context of causes and consequences. We simultaneously explore the direct and indirect paths and test our model across cultures, genders, and the combination of the two. For the entire sample (N=531), holistic thinking negatively relates to risk intentions via enhanced risk perceptions. Across cultures, the indirect paths prevail among Chinese people (n = 284), and both direct and indirect paths triumph for Americans (n = 247 ) . Across genders, the indirect paths exist for females, whereas the negative direct path (risk-raking attitudes -> behavioral intentions) succeeds for males. Across cultures and genders, holistic thinking negatively relates to American males' ethical risks the most but Chinese males' financial risks the least. Risk-taking perceptions are negatively related to Chinese males' ethical risks the most, but Chinese people's (males/females) financial risks the least. Causality and change are vital for all contexts, attention to the whole for all males and Chinese males, and contradiction for Americans and all females. Holistic thinking has limits and is less robust than risk-taking perceptions in reducing risky behavioral intentions. Our practical implications help people make ethical, healthy, and wealthy decisions.

Spatiotemporal evolution and suitability of apple production in China from climate change and land use transfer perspectives

Apple production in China, the world's largest apple producer and consumer, is challenged by a huge and growing population coupled with rapid industrialisation and urbanisation. China's apple output has increased continuously over the past 42 years with distinctive spatial differences. Herein, changes in the spatial patterns of apple production increases, and their potential impact factors in China are described at the provincial level. Between 1978 and 2019, the centre‐of‐gravity of apple production shifted southwest towards the upper reaches of the Yellow River, the main water source for agricultural irrigation in North China. Analysis of absolute and relative growth of apple output reveals that the Loess Plateau, characterised by fragile habitat and low land productivity, has gradually become a major contributor to apple production. Despite annual increases in apple output, apple production system has become more fragile and unstable overtime, especially in the Shaanxi‐Gansu region where apple cultivation is prevalent. With continuous changes in policy, the amount of forest transfer (i.e. the area of other land use types converted to forest) has significantly affected the impact of standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index on apple production increases in China. Thus, to prevent the degradation of new forests, a differentiated management and protection system should be implemented for apple planting sub‐regions. This should include altering subsidy policies on apple production, enhancing soil erosion control in the Loess Plateau and strengthening ecological management of forests and grassland.

A Century of Seminars: Celebrating the Centennial of Knowledge Transfer in Horticultural Science at the University of Minnesota

The advent of horticulture, backed by research, teaching, and extension in the State of Minnesota during the 1800s, had long-term ramifications for initiating opportunities for the newly formed University of Minnesota, the Minnesota Agricultural Experiment Station, and the Minnesota State Horticultural Society--all of which worked closely together. The founding of the horticulture department in 1888, then known as the Division of Horticulture and Forestry, provided long-term commitment to address the needs of the horticulture field. The integration of female students in 1897 provided inclusivity of gender perspectives in horticulture and enabled essential services during World War I (WWI), when male students, faculty, and administrators were drafted into military service. After the sudden death of Dr. Samuel Green, the first Department Head, in 1910, Dr. LeRoy Cady (who served as an Acting Department Head) instituted a novel idea at the time of having weekly departmental seminars. These formally commenced on 13 Jan. 1913, with the first seminar entitled "Organization of the Seminar." A survey across the country of horticulture or plant science-based departments revealed its uniqueness as being the oldest seminar series in the country and, undoubtedly, the world. An early seminar tradition included taste-testing of fruit. Early seminars were conducted in the department office of the newly built Horticulture Building (opened in 1899). This idea of the seminar format--as a valuable mechanism of exchanging ideas and increasing department associations--was spread by faculty and Dr. Cady at national and regional meetings of the American Society for Horticultural Science. The seminar concept stretched across the country to other universities and colleges with horticulture programs to make such a forum commonplace to convey research, teaching, and outreach findings in academic settings. Knowledge of the history of the seminar series remained obscure until the record book was discovered in 2010, which provided documentation of its founding and the early years of knowledge-sharing in seminar format. To mark this unique event in horticultural science, a centennial celebration of the seminar series occurred on 13 Jan. 2013. An estimated total of 1899 seminars have been presented during this century-long period. However, a gap in the seminars during 1916 to 1925 was unexplained in the record book. Examination of the departmental, college, and university archives during this time period revealed two primary reasons for this: WWI and the 1918 influenza epidemic. The War Department's takeover of all college and university campuses in 1918 resulted in the decimation of the faculty and student body by mandatory service (all males age 18--45 years), the institution of a wartime curriculum (which limited the number and types of horticulture classes), the takeover of essential departmental functions by nondrafted men and all female students/faculty, the building of barracks (many of which were on horticultural research plots), and the cessation of all activities, including the seminar. Concurrently, the 1918 infuenza outbreak prohibited social gatherings, thus limiting interactions such as seminars. Only a few photographs exist of students wearing masks in 1918, but the impact of the flu seriously affected the ability of students to return to the University of Minnesota after WWI. One subtle benefit in 1918 was the first-ever admission of disabled students (veterans) to horticulture classes. The deaths of students, faculty, and administrators on WWI battlefields, in training camps, or by influenza, as well as post-traumatic stress disorder, devastated the department for years. Lessons learned from these tragedies resonate with the modern-day continuation of the seminar series in the context of the current Covid-19 pandemic. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of HortScience is the property of American Society for Horticultural Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)